The thought of a shock move to Mercedes for 2026 is now off the cards, as Max Verstappen reaffirmed his commitment to his Red Bull Racing contract ahead of last weekend’s Hungarian Grand Prix.

Contracted to the end of 2028 with the team he’s won four consecutive world championships with, speculation was rife in recent months that 27-year-old Verstappen would look to activate a performance-related related break-clause in his contract and join Mercedes.

However, the reported end-of-July deadline to be lower than third in the standings has lapsed with the Dutchman arriving in Budapest with a clear 28-point advantage over fourth-placed George Russell – the driver he’d have potentially taken the seat of at Mercedes.

“The thing is, people are waffling so much throughout the whole season while the only one that actually can or should speak is not speaking,” Verstappen said ahead of the Hungarian Grand Prix.

Max Verstappen. (Photo by Eric Alonso/Getty Images)

“Some people just like to stir the pot, some people just like to create drama, but for me it’s always been quite clear and also for next year.

“I’m discussing with the team already the plans, the things that we want to change next year, so that means I’m also staying with the team for next year, and if my boat is next to Toto’s,s then the boat is next to Toto’s.

“You can have a personal relationship with someone even if you don’t have a working relationship with someone.”

The endless speculation of Verstappen leaving Red Bull in part could’ve played a hand in the removal of stalwart Christian Horner as team boss and CEO. Amongst other noise around him, which ceased to be silenced since the death of Red Bull patriarch Dietrich Mateschitz in 2022 which was less than savoury for the brand’s optics.

Verstappen’s decision to stay would be a relief for incumbent Mercedes driver Russell. The 27-year-old Briton’s current contract with the Silver Arrows expires at the end of this season.

There would have been an injustice if Russell had vacated for Verstappen. The Briton, of course, being managed by Wolff and had completed a lengthy apprenticeship at Williams prior to getting his chance with Mercedes in 2022 – just as their form slumped heading into the ground-effect aero era.

Though the argument for it being an injustice is moot, as there is an air of similarity to this move to Lewis Hamilton’s blockbuster Ferrari deal, seeing Carlos Sainz as the collateral damage last year.

Charles Leclerc, as is Kimi Antonelli, is the team’s prodigy, and it would’ve taken a significant performance gap to see either of those out – while the Italian has the benefit of being a rookie.

Yes, Russell is now the lead driver at Mercedes, while Sainz was loosely regarded as the wingman to Leclerc, and the Briton also overall bested Hamilton when they were teammates – the thought of Antonelli being untouchable is still there.

Despite the closeness in performance between Sainz and Leclerc as teammates, with a mere 0.037-second qualifying deficit to the Monegasque in 2024 and 2 wins to Leclerc’s 3. The lure of having F1’s statistically best driver of all-time was irresistible for Ferrari.

The same irresistible feeling that Mercedes no doubt would’ve been feeling in wanting the reigning four-time world champion’s signature. Making the argument around this being an injustice to Russell quite moot indeed.

George Russell of Mercedes AMG Petronas. (Photo by Clive Rose/Getty Images)

There would have been an air of similarity also of when Hamilton first joined Mercedes too, despite it having been a year before a major shift in engine regulations. Back in 2014 when the hybrid power-units first were introduced and Mercedes were tipped to dominate, which they did until the end of the decade and beyond.

Mercedes are tipped once again to have found the silver bullet for the next set of engine regulations, which debut next year, though there’s no guarantee this will be the case. If anything, this regulation change is what Hamilton would be gambling on too with his change to Ferrari to pursue that elusive eighth title – despite the challenging start he’s had to life at the Scuderia.

What it would have highlighted is the lack of faith from the four-time world champion in Red Bull’s much-anticipated internal power-unit programme, which will be given significant backing from Ford from 2026 – however, going into a complete unknown for Milton Keynes, who’ve never built their own engine before.

But perhaps the removal of Horner and arrival of Mekies, who already appears more focused on keeping the race team sharp instead of all the other facets of Red Bull Racing, which the former had become deeply ensconced within, will renew that faith in Verstappen for the time being.

“He’s very friendly, he’s very open, very motivated, very driven,” Verstappen said of his new team boss.

“That’s of course what you want to see from a boss, and I like it. It’s a nice atmosphere that he is creating, and I’m very excited for the future, what we can do together.

“Of course, for this year, the amount of influence with the car is difficult. You jump in the middle of the season but of course, for the future, you have a lot more say and influence on that. He’s asking, for me at least, the right questions and ideas. I like it.”

So, while 2026 appears to be set for the status quo to be maintained, there will be great intrigue over what happens in the following year. If Russell (as expected) is to be signed on with Mercedes, then for what length will that deal be?

Should Russell back himself as a multi-race winner on the open market for 2027, if only a 1+1 year is tabled? And Mercedes’ desire is still to go all in for Verstappen. Fascinating times await, and yet we’re well off seeing how the next generation of cars will even fare in 2026.