For much of the Toronto Blue Jays’ remarkable 2025 season, the way the team has succeeded has been just as surprising as how far they’ve climbed in the standings.

Toronto has enjoyed several pleasant surprises throughout the year, ranging from George Springer’s career renaissance to Eric Lauer’s bounce-back season to the quality high-leverage innings provided by relatively unproven arms like Yariel Rodríguez, Brendon Little and Braydon Fisher.

Even that is just a sampling of what has gone right for Toronto this year. Any club that enters a season expected to be a fringe wild-card contender and sits atop the American League a week into August is set to have a few positive surprises on the roster. 

The difference between the Blue Jays and many other teams that have exceeded expectations in the past is that their overperformance isn’t really tied to their biggest stars. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is sitting on a wRC+ (146) that is noticeably lower than what he produced last year (165). By the same measure, Bo Bichette’s mark (126) is slightly above his standard (120), but similar to his last two full seasons in 2023 (124) and 2022 (129). 

When Toronto’s season began to take flight during the team’s 10-game winning streak from June 29 to July 8, it was Springer and Addison Barger leading the charge. Guerrero and Bichette ranked seventh and eighth among the team’s position players in fWAR during the streak and combined for two home runs.

Such a small sample doesn’t tell the whole story of a season, but it is emblematic of how the bottom of the Blue Jays’ roster has felt like a bigger factor in the team’s success than the top at times.

That trend has died on the vine in recent weeks. 

At the beginning of the season, Vladdy and Bo were effective, but not necessarily driving the Blue Jays’ offence. Since the all-star break, the pair has collectively delivered superstar-level production for Toronto. 

At 20 games, we’re not looking at a huge sample, but it’s not an insignificant one either, at approximately one-eighth of the season — and during that time, Guerrero and Bichette have been extraordinary.

To understand if this is just a blip or if we can expect the duo to keep raking, it makes sense to look at them individually.

While Guerrero and Bichette have similar numbers over the last 20 games overall, Bichette’s excellence is more top of mind thanks to a stellar series at Coors Field that included three home runs.

Bichette’s success in Denver may give the impression that he’s in the midst of a massive power surge, but his recent hot streak has been more the result of piling up hits than consistently clearing the wall. Before he showed up at Coors, he’d hit just one home run in the second half but still had a 166 wRC+ to his name.

It’s not surprising for a guy who ranks ninth in the majors in hits since his MLB debut in 2019 to excel offensively by delivering a barrage of knocks, but there is an added wrinkle to Bichette’s strong results. In recent weeks, the 27-year-old has been harder to strike out than he has been at any point in his career:

That’s even better news for Bichette than it would be for most hitters because he hits the ball hard and sprays it unpredictably around the diamond — making him far harder to defend than most hitters. As a result, significantly more of his balls in play result in hits.

Thanks in part to his recent hot streak, Bichette’s season-long strikeout rate (14.8 per cent) is now far lower than any other year of his career, with 2024’s 19.0 per cent standing as his previous best. 

Although the shortstop is unlikely to keep producing at his current pace, if his recent success avoiding strikeouts holds up, 2025 could easily wind up as his best MLB campaign.

While Bichette has found a near gear primarily by putting more balls in play, Guerrero’s hot second half is most notable for power output, unlike anything we’ve seen from him in 2025.

Guerrero had slugging peaks that dwarf his recent run in 2021 and 2024, but this is still encouraging stuff for a hitter who hasn’t reached his power potential yet this season. 

It’s tough to identify one singular factor that has allowed Vladdy’s slugging to click into place. Like Bichette, he’s cut down on his strikeouts lately, but he managed a similar dip in mid-June that didn’t result in elite power numbers: 

Perhaps the best explanation is one that often comes up in discussion of Guerrero’s offensive profile — the first baseman is doing a better job at elevating the ball. 

In the first half of the season, the 26-year-old’s exit velocity and hard-hit rate were elite, but he smashed a few too many balls into the turf. In the second half, the exit velo is down, but more of his batted balls have been in the air.

When it comes to Guerrero, it’s a given that he’s going to scorch the ball, and along with his excellent plate discipline, that will be enough to be an above-average hitter. To be an elite middle-of-the-order force, a little elevation is necessary, and that’s what he’s been providing recently. 

As far as the rest of the season goes, it’s not fair to assume Guerrero will keep this level up, but it is reasonable to feel more optimistic about what he might provide than it was even a month ago.