The 2025 NCAA Tournament has featured a surprising lack of upsets.
Per OptaSTATS, just four conferences — the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC, all members of the Power Four — are represented in the tournament’s Sweet 16 for the first time since its inception in 1975. Every previous Sweet 16 had at least seven.
On a Monday episode of ESPN’s “Get Up,” ESPN analyst Jay Williams, a former Duke star, said NIL (name, image and likeness) will continue to reduce the number of upsets in the tournament.
“I think my biggest takeaway of everything over the weekend was that NIL is the death of mid-major Cinderella runs,” Williams said. “It still can happen, but I think it’s going to be more of a rarity.”
NIL allows Power Four schools to pluck the top players from mid-majors, which can disrupt roster continuity.
“And when I talk to mid-major coaches, the consistent complaint I always hear from them is retention,” Williams said. “‘We can’t hold onto players because these Power Four schools are just clipping and taking them away from us.’ And that’s why I think you’re seeing chalk as much as you’re seeing right now, as we get to the Sweet 16. You’re not seeing any mid-major left. You’re going to see the big boys. And I think that’s gonna be the case moving forward.”
NIL can also help big schools poach successful coaches from mid-majors. In 2024, Michigan hired coach Dusty May, who guided Florida Atlantic to the Final Four in the 2023 tournament.
In their first season under May, the No. 5-seed Wolverines are 27-9 and have made their first Sweet 16 in three years.
How to better regulate NIL to maintain a level playing field remains unclear. However, fewer Cinderella runs in March Madness certainly seems like one of its unintended consequences.
