This assessment was based on a team’s;
• Position last year
• Changes of personnel – (an improved or unimproved roster)
• Manner/attitude in the way they started the year.
There was the ‘Sure Things’ group, those considered to be certainties for the 8, likely for the top 4 and out of which the ultimate comp winner would come. This group comprised Melbourne, Cronulla, Canterbury, Penrith and Brisbane. The fearless prediction at that time was that by this stage three of these would comprise the top 4. Given Canterbury leads the comp and Melbourne & Cronulla are equal on points at #4 this prediction was pretty accurate.
Obviously Penrith have crashed and out of the reckoning, but Brisbane are still hovering around the 8 so not that far wrong.
Nathan Cleary is tackled. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
The next group were the High Achievers, comprising Manly and Souths and both are in the 8 as expected.
Beyond these were those simply making up the numbers. Those teams that could be competitive on their day but lacked the consistency or strike power to have a marked effect on the comp. They wouldn’t hang around at the end of the year yet wouldn’t really figure in spoon discussions.
While Sydney City were in this group, it was noted that while they would suffer a fall from their usual lofty heights, they could also slip into the bottom of the 8 come Round 25. They’re in a good position to make this also a sound prediction. As for the rest; Wests Tigers was a good call, North Queensland are a bit higher than expected while Newcastle are a little bit lower. So for almost all this group, their position was quite accurately determined by Round 3. All except for the NZ Warriors who have totally busted the Crystal Ball.
The next group were those identified as being in trouble, Redcliffe, St George Illawarra and Parramatta. Not a poor evaluation with Redcliffe very inconsistent and St George Illawarra losing 3 games by a point (could have been in the top 4, eh?!). Parramatta however are defying the early spoon prediction with some good wins. They may end up offloading the wooden whammy stick to Newcastle or Titans, or shock horror – Penrith.
As with most fearless predictions, there is a chance for some surprises and I threw up both Canberra and the Gold Coast. Both of these left-field selections have proven to be true. Canberra by surprising everyone with how good they are and Gold Coast by being so shockingly awful. Which is a surprise to most given their roster and additions.
So, as a wrap, the state of the competition pre-Origin could be very accurately determined as early as Round 3. The only predictions that were well off the mark involved the NZ Warriors (well done lads) and Penrith. It’s early days to suggest that Parramatta still won’t be collecting the spoon.
Next check in comes after Origin where we see effect that has had.
Until then, good luck tipping this year!
