It’s that delightful time of the NRL calendar where every club is still a mathematical chance of making the finals – even the Wests Tigers – and countless fans are reading way too much intro trial game results.
Yes, it’s the pre-season! Which is all very exciting. Mainly because it also means it’s annual predictions time.
There’s no real need to mess about with a lengthy preamble here. Regular readers know the drill, and will therefore be ready to laugh, or have their metaphorical daggers sharpened in preparation.
Meanwhile, if you’re new around here, the headline is a bit of a giveaway as to what you can expect.
As such, we’ll just get straight to the point, and unveil my first fearless prediction for 2025 …
1. The Brisbane Broncos will make the grand final
Is it really a big call to pick a team that qualified for the grand final in 2023 to make it again in 2025, with essentially the same squad? Or is crazy to believe a team can go from 12th spot on the ladder to the grand final the very next season, with essentially the same squad?
How bold – or not – you believe this prediction to be, relies almost exclusively on your opinion of Michael Maguire’s ability as a coach.
No one can deny the Broncos have an incredible array of talent. What’s equally not up for debate is how disappointing they were in 2024. Enter the man they call ‘Madge’.
If you believe the narrative that the Brisbane players got too big for their boots, and need some discipline and tough love, then, in my humble opinion, you could hardly cast a better person for the role than Maguire.
Whilst his fire and brimstone approach may have a shelf live, I believe it will work wonders for the Broncos in year one.
2. The Wests Tigers will win the wooden spoon
I got cute last year, and against the grain of (somewhat) popular opinion, predicted the Tigers wouldn’t finish last. Which was a little silly, considering they’re the Penrith Panthers of losing.
Yes, I used that same joke last year, but if the Tigers can be so hopelessly consistent, then so can I.
The 2025 season begins against the backdrop of many believing that Wests’ recruitment of Jarome Luai will usher in a new era of professionalism, competitiveness, and, most importantly, winning, at the club.
I’m not quite buying it.
It’s no criticism of Luai, but I think it’s vastly different playing your role within a loaded Panthers side, than it is to be the main focal point of a team, and be asked to drag them up from the bottom of the ladder.
The Tigers are definitely trending in the right direction, but then again, the only way is up when you’re at rock bottom. They’ll be improved in 2025, but not enough to escape their fourth straight wooden spoon.
3. Queensland will have three teams in the finals
If I’m picking the Broncos to make the grand final, then my limited grasp of mathematics tells me they’ll probably have to make the top eight.
They’ll be joined by the Cowboys, who I believe are a very good football team, despite some significant personnel losses. I may also have a bit of a man crush on Tom Dearden, which potentially clouds my judgement. However, the Townsville crew did finish fifth last year, and Dearden was named five-eight in the Dally M team of the year, so it’s not like I’m letting my heart overrule my head too drastically here.
Where things get intruiging is my faith that the Dolphins can overcome the Wayne Bennett curse, which sees every club he leaves practically disintegrate in his wake.
The Dolphins have been a bit of a surprise packet since entering the competition, and will continue their momentum by securing a finals berth in 2025.
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(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
4. Queensland will win State of Origin
Every time there is a hint of a NSW dynasty, melodramatic Queenslanders will proclaim their fears that the State of Origin concept will die because of it.
What usually then occurs is a “gutsy” Maroons series victory, which is immediately followed by the announcement from up north that “NSW just don’t get Origin”.
It’s a little bemusing, yet you can almost set your watch to it. So I will: Queensland will win back the State of Origin trophy this year.
Not because NSW will miss Madge’s mind games. Not because Queensland will welcome back a host of quality players for this year’s series. Not because Laurie Daley can’t coach. Not because of the much-vaunted “Maroons spirt”.
No, simply because this is just how Origin works.
5. Matt Burton will win the Dally M
Worried there was no Bulldogs optimism, or just flat our bias, from me this season? Fear not, I’ve merely saved the best until last, with the wager that Bulldogs five-eighth Matt Burton will take home the 2025 Dally M Medal.
What’s that? Mary Fowler has Nathan Cleary primed to have his best season ever? Whatever.
The Storm have four players, in Cameron Munster, Jahrome Hughes, Ryan Papenhuyzen and Harry Grant, that are all a better chance than Burton? Pffft.
Kayln Ponga hasn’t been knocked out? James Tedesco hasn’t retired? Tom Trbojevic hasn’t done a hamstring? Well, no, not yet. But give them time.
Sorry folks, but you read it here first: ‘Burto’ will be the 2025 Dally M Medallist.
Bonus Prediction: The Final Ladder
1. Storm
2. Sharks
3. Panthers
4. Broncos
5. Bulldogs
6. Cowboys
7. Sea Eagles
8. Dolphins
9. Dragons
10. Eels
11. Knights
12. Warriors
13. Raiders
14. Roosters
15. Titans
16. Rabbitohs
17. Tigers
