How might the suspension of US arms supply impact Ukraine’s political stability and military capabilities, even as Russia is making territorial gains?
Swaminathan Aiyar: Every country in a war is fighting out of stocks. So, if the United States stops, it does not mean that Ukraine will run out of weapons in a day or even a week. Mr Trump has a way of changing his mind every second day. I am not clear at this particular point what his aim is. It is certainly not the case that Zelenskyy is insisting on – continuing the war or that Russia is keen on a ceasefire. In fact, we have just heard that the largest ever number of drones have been used by Russia against Zelenskyy in the last few days.
So, in these conditions, it is very far from clear what Trump is trying to do. I would add that the Europeans, to the extent they can, are giving full support to Zelenskyy. So, it is not as though they will be deprived totally of any supplies, they will get supplies from the other parties. The key question is, does he have a proposal which both sides will accept?
At this point of time, Russia has the advantage. I mean, it has the men, it has the arms, it has the money. Can it continue with the war if it feels like it? And the answer is yes. Again and again, Putin has said that I want the whole of Ukraine, whether it is a negotiating position or not. So, at this point of time when Trump wants to have a quick deal, whether he has the ability to do so by these various tactics is far from clear. Let us see what happens.
I have a feeling that this is just a short-term tactic. Beyond that, he has given a number of threats to countries like India and China that have been buying Soviet crude oil. By now, Indians have diversified, but there can be no question that there is a very large grey market and there are ships which nobody knows where they are from, that are supplying oil through various chains. So, let us see.
The Indian importers are going to be careful at this point of time not to be tempted just by the low price of Russian oil on the grey market that may put a little more pressure on Mr Putin. I hope so. I mean, we would all want a ceasefire and some kind of resolution on Ukraine. The problem right now is that Putin is on a very strong wicket. What does he have to lose if he continues? That is the real problem and let us see whether there is any way out of that.But let us talk a bit more about Trump’s strategy with respect to the Russia-Ukraine war. In the past when he assumed office, he showed a lot of enthusiasm regarding halting this war within days. But now his patience seems to be wearing thin. But is this necessarily indicating a shift in the US policy when it comes to Ukraine and Russia? Do you want to throw a bit more light on this changed US policy perhaps towards Russia and Ukraine?
Swaminathan Aiyar: All I can say is that he keeps shifting. He was initially extremely rude to Mr Zelenskyy when he went over to the USA and Trump and Vance said he would have to apologise and behave properly and thank them more, which he did. And then later on when the Russians were not giving in, he declared that Putin is mad, Putin is stupid, and very funny the Russians reacted by saying we do not take this seriously. So, they could see the acting. At this point, he is acting like he has always acted and he claims that in deal-making you say various things in order to prepare yourself for the final. So, at this point I would say we do not know what his tactics are. He wants a ceasefire that is clear. How he pushes both sides into a ceasefire is not clear and he may once again call Putin mad the day after tomorrow, we do not know! So, let us see what happens.
At this point of time, I would simply say, nobody is taking Trump seriously on any one statement because he keeps changing. So, when he begins to show a more clearcut coherent line, I think then we will say this is what Trump wants to do. At this point of time, people say yawn, do not take it too seriously, he may go back on this tomorrow, wait and see whether there is a cogent line, then we will know where he is actually going.
Disruption and confusion has been Donald Trump‘s policy as far as this administration is concerned and of course, there is another story that is brewing in the United States – the India-US trade deal. He has made a lot of flip-flops on that. When the United States actually decides to curb the transfer of some weapons, what is behind this selective suspension?
Swaminathan Aiyar: He has said that he is going to do this again and again. It is not the first time he said this. The very first time he said that I am going to do nothing at all. I mean, this is before Zelenskyy landed there. And then some of it was resumed and then it was partial.
So, I will say it is like his statements on tariffs as well. Initially the stock market would react violently to a statement. Now he keeps making different statements. The stock market said just relax. This guy is not to be taken seriously until we get to the final blow. So, right now, it is undoubtedly true that Washington wants a ceasefire. Washington wants a resolution. Washington wants an out from constant supply of money and arms and other things. It does not want to continue.
At the same time, he wants to claim a victory in stopping the war. But how he is going to stop Putin is unclear right now. He is trying very hard on oil. Actually, Biden was the one who tightened the screws and now it is going to be much more difficult for Russia to sell oil. But the way the war is going at this point, I do not see that Russia can be stopped in its tracks right now by further sanctions on oil or other things. So, all we can say is that we are in a ferment of not knowing what is going to happen.
It is almost difficult to think that Trump has only been in office for about 100 days. It seems such a long time since he stirred the pot and everybody began to wonder what he is going to do in war. So, I would say that he certainly wants to reduce his commitments to Ukraine. He wants to combine that with greater sanctions and forcing Putin to the negotiating table. Nobody really knows how this is going to happen or on whose terms. Zelenskyy’s real fear is that Russia will say okay we have a ceasefire, they will be a ceasefire and then they will resume the attack. In that case, what will Trump do? After all these sanctions, if Russia has not given way, what is the additional thing he is going to do? So, I would say Russia at this point is in the driver’s seat and what Trump is doing right now is not serious.
