There’s no such thing as a meaningless State of Origin series, especially heading into a decider, but every now and then, one comes along that feels like it carries more weight than usual.
That’s exactly what Origin III at Accor Stadium on Wednesday night represents – not just for the players but particularly for the two men tasked with leading them, Billy Slater and Laurie Daley.
Both coaches have spent the last six weeks under the microscope, scrutinised for their selections, strategies, and composure. It’s the players who will ultimately decide the result on the field but, a series loss in 2025 would be personally defining for each coach.
When Slater took over the Queensland job in 2022, he was the Maroons’ golden child. A champion fullback with a sharp football mind and immense respect from the playing group, he seemed born for the Origin arena.
And at first, he was. Queensland stunned a more fancied NSW side in 2022 and followed up with a dominant 2–1 series win in 2023. The aura around Slater only grew and he had a reputation for ‘just getting Origin’.
But now, the pendulum has swung.
Slater’s side came into the 2024 series as strong favourites and faltered. Now they’re staring down the barrel of a second consecutive series defeat, a prospect that could shift the narrative around his coaching tenure.
Origin coaching is unforgiving. For all the tactical analysis and motivational speeches, it’s a results business. And if Slater can’t deliver another trophy, then questions will be asked.
Questions like whether he has been too loyal to certain players, whether some of his wilder selections have paid off and whether his aura is starting to wear off.
Another series loss would bring Slater’s once untouchable status back to earth. In a rugby league landscape that eats its own, even the legends aren’t immune.
On the other side, Daley’s return to the hot seat was greeted with mixed emotions, some nostalgic and others nervous.
If the Blues lose on Wednesday night, he’ll be facing a 1–5 Origin record.
That’s the kind of stat that gets etched into headlines and coaching dossiers forever.
Daley has brought a sense of calm and clarity, even despite some of the injury concerns that the Blues have faced this series.
Maroons coach Billy Slater. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
Even with a series loss for the Blues, this year’s series hasn’t been without progress. Even on the back of a very lop sided penalty count, the Blues came very close in Game II.
A win in Game III would buy Daley time and most importantly, control of the narrative.
A loss? That would cement his status as the unluckiest, or perhaps least effective, NSW coach in modern Origin history.
And the more series losses that accrue, the harder it is to justify another campaign for that coach.
For Slater, this Wednesday is a chance to reassert Queensland’s dominance and remind everyone why he was seen as the next great coaching mind. For Daley, it’s a shot at redemption, relevance, and proof that he still has what it takes.
The question isn’t just who wins, it’s who takes control of their own legacy.
Lose, and you’re at the mercy of every ex-player, columnist, and fan with a mic or a TikTok account. Win, and you write your own next chapter.
I also can’t help myself from making one more comment…
While Origin prepares for its grand finale, Rugby Australia is … well, doing what Rugby Australia does best: missing the moment.
In a baffling scheduling decision, the Brumbies will host the British and Irish Lions on the same night as Game III of Origin and will basically kick off at exactly the same time.
You have to hand it to them – it takes a special kind of obliviousness to try to compete with rugby league’s biggest night of the year. It’s like setting up a backyard barbecue during the Super Bowl.
For a code desperately trying to claw back relevance in Australia, the choice to pit their marquee touring team against the Origin decider is either bold or just plain bonkers. Probably the latter.
