If last week was Blockbuster Weekend, Round 19 looks like being Sensational Sunday: a middling round of footy with precious few vital games until the two best matches go practically head-to-head on its final afternoon.
Collingwood hosting Fremantle, and ESPECIALLY Adelaide battling Gold Coast, loom as being absolute blockbusters – the Pies can shore up a suddenly slightly shaky top spot, the Dockers another win over a would-be finalist to entrench themselves in the eight, and the Crows and Suns potentially playing off for a top-four spot – so it’s a crying shame that they’re some of the only games this round that overlap.
But if you’re a glutton for punishment or entertainingly awful football, Saturday night is the place to be: not only do we have Carlton and Melbourne in a 2023 semi final rematch between two of this year’s biggest fallen powers, but we also have the Battle for Bottom – the wooden spoon might be decided, but West Coast get probably their last serious chance of a victory this season against Richmond.
Let’s find out who our experts are backing!
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Tim Miller
GWS, Brisbane, Hawthorn, Sydney, Melbourne, West Coast, Geelong, Collingwood, Adelaide
My gamble last weekend paid off – a 7/9, about as big as anyone got for the round, sees me soar ahead of the other two experts, and close the gap to The Crowd to … seven.
But I face a conundrum this weekend: I’m one of 3,943 tipsters still alive in the AFL Tipping competition’s Gauntlet, where you have to pick one different team every round and if they lose, you’re out.
With six weeks to go, I still need to pick Carlton, Essendon, Richmond, St Kilda, Sydney and West Coast – safe to say I’m skating on very thin ice!
To be honest, three of them are simply untippable: with more injuries ripping the soul as well as the heart out of the Bombers, the Giants are resting players for their Thursday night mockbuster and still will win in a canter; St Kilda head to the Cattery to face (and lose to) Geelong, and while Carlton are definitely a chance against Melbourne, imagine how silly you’d feel putting a Gauntlet tip on them only to get another horrific performance.
That leaves two options for me – a likely Sydney win over a Tristan Xerri-less North Melbourne, or the bigger risk of backing one of West Coast and Richmond in Saturday night’s Battle for Bottom in Perth.
While I decide, let’s run through the rest of the weekend.
The Western Bulldogs are impossible to tip against anyone good at the moment, even if I think they’re a puncher’s chance on Friday night against a Brisbane team vulnerable at the Gabba this year and without Zac Bailey; Hawthorn should do a number on Port Adelaide in Launceston if they can push Freo all the way in Perth; and in the two Sunday blockbusters, I’m backing the home teams, so Collingwood to take care of the Dockers and Adelaide to all but lock in a top-four berth against Gold Coast.
Okay, I’ve decided. This is probably the Eagles’ last chance at a win this year, and they’re favourites owing to both home ground advantage and some improved form of late. I’ve got to back them at some point: it’s now or never.
Mac Andrew of the Suns and Riley Thilthorpe of the Crows grapple (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
Dem Panopoulos
GWS, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, Sydney, Carlton, West Coast, Geelong, Collingwood, Adelaide
Last round was finally a bit of fun in the AFL – we hope it marks a turning point in the season as a realignment for our expectations.
Naturally, we kick off on Thursday night against the most depleted team we’ve seen in a while against a travelling team opting to rest some of its stars, such is the ease in which the Giants expect to beat Essendon.
Friday will be better, although not if you listen to everyone. Seemingly, it’s the Bulldogs’ turn to cop it as the team on the outer. I spoke about it last week in my Fremantle piece, but footy media these days is just reacting to what just happened and whichever team is outside the eight will cop it. The focus on Fremantle did a 180 after their win – it’d be nice if people took a breath and watched the footy.
Regardless, I think this will be a good game at the Gabba, with both defences the weakest parts of their games. I’m actually going the upset here – I’m thinking with backs against the wall, the Bulldogs’ offence will cover their defence and I’m not sure I like the Lions’ chances of beating Sam Darcy and Aaron Naughton.
The Hawks will beat Port in Tasmania – the Power had their one Grand Final against Hawthorn earlier in the season and won’t replicate that effort. The Swans will cover North handily too.
If you’re all booked up this Saturday evening, you’re steps ahead of everyone else. At some point, Carlton probably has to win a game, right? The swing factor for me here is Adam Saad’s fitness – if he’s in, I’ll be confident in the Blues over Melbourne. It’s always fraught with danger submitting this one on a Tuesday in my case, but I’ll say he’s in and the Blues win.
In Perth, I think West Coast are copping it more than they deserve at the moment. This should be treated as year one of the rebuild, and Andrew McQualter’s doing some good things. I think they might celebrate a win over the Tigers.
Two awesome games wrap up the round, though Sunday starts off shabbily with Geelong surely taking care of St Kilda. Fremantle did everything you’d hope they would against the Hawks and I think they are a team perfectly set up to beat the Magpies, as they ought to have done earlier this season. It’s Collingwood off a loss, though, and without Alex Pearce for the travelling team – I’ll wait to tip this upset in September.
Finally, I got to see the Crows up close last week and was thoroughly impressed. I still think the Suns are closer to a flag this year developmentally, but I’m expecting this to be a fiery contest that the home team are able to navigate their way through.
Finn Callaghan is in sensational form for GWS. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Liam Salter
GWS, Brisbane, Hawthorn, Sydney, Carlton, West Coast, Geelong, Collingwood, Adelaide
Ahhh, Round 19. On paper, this looks easy. In practice, there’s going to be an upset or two.
Cutting to the chase, it ain’t going to be Essendons, who have more Thursday and Friday night appearances left in 2025 (four!) as genuinely fit players on the list (not sure, but between you reading this and tonight’s game beginning, they’ll undoubtedly lose another one or two).
Those who love sentimental draft stories get a 13th (!) new Bomber to cheer on, but the biggest beneficiaries here are the Giants, who’ll cruise to an easy-as-they-please win in their fight for the top eight.
At least things will be more entertaining a night later! The Doggies’ record against top eight teams is, well, sub-optimal, which naturally makes it an elite time for them to face Brisbane at the Gabba. If the Dogs are ever wanting to exorcise a demon, now’s the time, but the Lions have their mojo back in such a way that they’re an irresistible tip.
Any such optimism still remaining for Port Adelaide’s mathematical finals hopes – and honest to god, I heard a surprising amount early this week – dissipated pretty as news broke of Jason Horne-Francis and Connor Rozee’s injury woes. No matter how well they play against the Hawks, it’s simply inconceivable they’ll beat them this week.
And as much as North have challenged teams throughout the season, no Tristan Xerri is a bridge too far and then some, especially against a resurgent Sydney.
Saturday night programming isn’t super. The Blues at least have a chance for some respectability, and I won’t shy away from backing them to do just that over a mediocre Demons outfit. Surely, right?
Backing the Eagles, thirty five minutes later and out west, would usually be fraught with risk. It probably still is, even if their opposition is an equally hapless Richmond squad. If there’s ever a chance for Andrew McQualter’s men to earn a second win, this is it.
You’ve gotta skip over Sunday’s opener to get to the good stuff – and you won’t miss much, as it’s tricky to argue against St Kilda’s history at GMHBA Stadium and to seriously believe they’ll surprise the much-better Cats at a ground they haven’t won at since June 1999.
It gets more interesting around 3pm, as Freo face the trickiest fixture in their run home against the Pies. They won’t have factored this win into their ‘making finals equations’, and I’m not tipping them, but is there ever so slightly the smell of upset in the air? Very Round 11, 2022-esque vibes, except with roles reversed.
Sunday becomes essential viewing late in the day, with the Magpie-conquering Suns venturing to a ground they’ve never won at, to play a team they’ve beaten in four from their last five. Aren’t statistics funny? This’ll be sexy, fun football, you’d think, and despite the real potential for an upset, I’m playing it safe. Adelaide it is.
| Round 19 | Tim | Dem | Liam | Crowd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESS vs GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS | ? |
| BL vs WB | BL | WB | BL | ? |
| HAW vs PA | HAW | HAW | HAW | ? |
| SYD vs NM | SYD | SYD | SYD | ? |
| CAR vs MEL | MEL | CAR | CAR | ? |
| WCE vs RCH | WCE | WCE | WCE | ? |
| GEE vs STK | GEE | GEE | GEE | ? |
| COL vs FRE | COL | COL | COL | ? |
| ADE vs GCS | ADE | ADE | ADE | ? |
| LAST WEEK | 7 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| ROLLING TOTAL | 104 | 100 | 101 | 111 |
